If You Make Good Films, They Will Come! 2005

Who let all those independent films into the Oscar race? Most of the credit is due to the filmmakers who had the creativity and skill to make interesting films and the financial sources who funded their visions. A thank you also goes to the studios that made many blockbusters that audiences wouldn’t go to the theater to see. Although the Oscar nominations are not in yet, the road to the Oscars is crowded with awards and nominations for indie films from the critics organizations and the Hollywood Foreign Press Assoc., which gives out the Golden Globes.  With the Globes awards on Jan. 16 and the Oscar nomination ballots not due back until Jan. 21, the Globes may have an even greater effect on the Oscars than in previous years.

Despite news that the total  North American box office has fallen 5% to an estimated $9B (the official box office total will be available from  the MPAA at ShoWest in March), the independent film share of that total is $3.4B, up 6% from $3.2B last year.
      
Other news from 2005 is a narrowing of domestic DVD windows. The trade papers and analysts have been using studio films as a barometer. Indie films have a different distribution pattern (platformed releases rather than wide) and tend to stay out longer in general. Tracking the 2005 indie films with release dates through Jan. 2006 shows 27% of films being released on DVD within five months of their box office release, 21% within four months, 17% within three months and 14% within six months. For the year, the change seems to be in a slight increase in releases six months later and a few more films stretching out over seven  months to year than earlier in the year. This compares favorably with Business Strategies’ cash flow forecast that shows films going into home video from four to six months after their theatrical release.

Two other big stories for 2005 are the return of the Weinstein brothers to an officially independent company (see TFE for Oct.), and the purchase of DreamWorks by Paramount. While the Weinstein’s Miramax was an autonomous unit within Disney and most of their films considered independently-made, your editor has yet to decide how to categorize future DreamWorks (the brand name will remain) films. (See page 2 for more info.)

The digital revolution is still waiting to take off, as it was in 2004. Exhibitors, studios and large independents have announced agreements for the installation of from 2,500 to 20,000 digital systems between 2007 and 2010 ; however, studios, exhibitors and distributors are still be debating how to finance them. At the moment and probably well into 2007, there are still only about 100 digital screens in the U.S. Having a final print in 35mm is still the way to go.